Ariane Carnelossi vs Ketlen Souza: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · June 6, 2026
Result
Ketlen Souza defeated Ariane Carnelossi by KO/TKO in round 1 (01:34:00) at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on June 6, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Ketlen Souza as the favourite at 64%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Ketlen Souza a 64% chance to beat Ariane Carnelossi (Ariane Carnelossi 36%).
The betting market prices Ariane Carnelossi at 28% (+239) and Ketlen Souza at 72% (-322), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Ariane Carnelossi than the bookmakers: 41% for Ariane Carnelossi against the market's 28%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Souza's striking precision and defensive acumen may exploit Carnelossi's limited volume and recent struggles, leading to a potential finish or decision victory.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 52%, submission 25%, KO/TKO 23%. The most likely way this 3-round women's strawweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 52%, over 1.5 rounds 85%, over 2.5 rounds 74%.
Key factors
- Souza's striking accuracy
- Carnelossi's cardio advantage
- Souza's recent momentum
Tale of the tape
| Ariane Carnelossi | Ketlen Souza | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Age | 34 | 32 |
| Height | 5'2" (157 cm) | 5'2" (157 cm) |
| UFC fights | 7 | 7 |
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