Alonzo Menifield vs Zhang Mingyang: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · May 30, 2026
Result
Alonzo Menifield defeated Zhang Mingyang by KO/TKO in round 1 (04:15:00) at UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo on May 30, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Alonzo Menifield at only 38%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Zhang Mingyang a 62% chance to beat Alonzo Menifield (Alonzo Menifield 38%).
The betting market prices Alonzo Menifield at 32% (+198) and Zhang Mingyang at 68% (-257), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Alonzo Menifield than the bookmakers: 42% for Alonzo Menifield against the market's 32%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Mingyang's knockout threat and striking volume may exploit Menifield's recent struggles, leading to a decisive finish or decision victory.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 44%, decision 40%, submission 16%. The most likely way this 3-round light heavyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 40%, over 1.5 rounds 72%, over 2.5 rounds 58%.
Key factors
- Mingyang's striking power
- Menifield's cardio advantage
- Volume disparity favors Mingyang
Tale of the tape
| Alonzo Menifield | Zhang Mingyang | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-6 | 3-2 |
| Age | 39 | 28 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 6'2" (188 cm) |
| UFC fights | 18 | 5 |
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