Aaron Pico vs Patricio Pitbull: Result and Prediction
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · April 11, 2026
Result
Aaron Pico defeated Patricio Pitbull by Decision in round 3 (5:00) at UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg on April 11, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Aaron Pico as the favourite at 59%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Aaron Pico a 59% chance to beat Patricio Pitbull (Patricio Pitbull 41%).
The betting market prices Aaron Pico at 71% (-302) and Patricio Pitbull at 29% (+227), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Patricio Pitbull than the bookmakers: 41% for Aaron Pico against the market's 71%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Pico's knockout power clashes with Pitbull's grappling mastery, setting the stage for a high-stakes battle where every exchange could lead to a finish.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 41%, submission 30%, decision 29%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 29%.
Key factors
- Pitbull's grappling control
- Pico's KO threat
- Defensive metrics favor Pitbull
Tale of the tape
| Aaron Pico | Patricio Pitbull | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Age | 30 | – |
| Height | 5'8" (173 cm) | – |
| UFC fights | 2 | 2 |
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