Axel Sola vs Mason Jones: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · March 21, 2026
Result
Mason Jones defeated Axel Sola by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy on March 21, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Mason Jones as the favourite at 53%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Mason Jones a 53% chance to beat Axel Sola (Axel Sola 47%).
The betting market prices Axel Sola at 43% (+119) and Mason Jones at 57% (-147), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Axel Sola than the bookmakers: 52% for Axel Sola against the market's 43%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Sola's knockout power faces Jones's grappling control, with the latter's cardio potentially tipping the scales in a drawn-out battle.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 52%, KO/TKO 39%, submission 9%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 52%.
Key factors
- Sola's striking power
- Jones's grappling control
- Jones's cardio advantage
Tale of the tape
| Axel Sola | Mason Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 4-3 |
| Age | 29 | 31 |
| Height | 5'11" (180 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 7 |
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