Luana Carolina vs Melissa Mullins: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · March 21, 2026
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Melissa Mullins a 52% chance to beat Luana Carolina (Luana Carolina 48%).
The betting market prices Luana Carolina at 54% (-132) and Melissa Mullins at 46% (+104), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Melissa Mullins than the bookmakers: 44% for Luana Carolina against the market's 54%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Mullins' knockout threat and grappling control could exploit Carolina's weaknesses, especially with both fighters on losing streaks and in need of a decisive victory.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 57%, KO/TKO 30%, submission 14%. The most likely way this 3-round women's bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 57%, over 1.5 rounds 85%, over 2.5 rounds 75%.
Key factors
- Mullins' knockout potential
- Carolina's cardio advantage
- Grappling control favors Mullins
Tale of the tape
| Luana Carolina | Melissa Mullins | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 | 1-3 |
| Age | 33 | 35 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 10 | 4 |
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