Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · March 28, 2026
Result
Alexia Thainara defeated Bruna Brasil by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Alexia Thainara as the favourite at 79%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Alexia Thainara a 79% chance to beat Bruna Brasil (Bruna Brasil 21%).
The betting market prices Alexia Thainara at 84% (-769) and Bruna Brasil at 16% (+480), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Bruna Brasil than the bookmakers: 75% for Alexia Thainara against the market's 84%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Thainara's elite grappling and submission skills will exploit Brasil's defensive gaps, leading to a likely finish in the later rounds.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: submission 58%, KO/TKO 32%, decision 11%. The most likely way this 3-round women's strawweight fight ends is by submission.
Fight length: goes the distance 11%.
Key factors
- Thainara's elite grappling
- High submission threat
- Brasil's defensive limitations
Tale of the tape
| Alexia Thainara | Bruna Brasil | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 3-5 |
| Age | 29 | 33 |
| Height | 5'4" (163 cm) | 5'6" (168 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 8 |
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