Jefferson Nascimento vs Tahir Abdullayev: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · June 27, 2026
Result
Tahir Abdullayev defeated Jefferson Nascimento by KO/TKO in round 3 (04:28:00) at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres on June 27, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Tahir Abdullayev as the favourite at 53%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Tahir Abdullayev a 53% chance to beat Jefferson Nascimento (Jefferson Nascimento 47%).
The betting market prices Jefferson Nascimento at 54% (-132) and Tahir Abdullayev at 46% (+110), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Tahir Abdullayev than the bookmakers: 35% for Jefferson Nascimento against the market's 54%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Nascimento on a two-fight skid, Abdullayev's elite striking and grappling threaten a finish, making this clash a potential showcase of skill disparity.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 46%, decision 32%, submission 21%. The most likely way this 3-round welterweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 32%.
Key factors
- Abdullayev's elite striking
- Nascimento's recent struggles
- Grappling control favors Abdullayev
Tale of the tape
| Jefferson Nascimento | Tahir Abdullayev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Age | 28 | 30 |
| Height | – | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 1 |
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