Gabriel Bonfim vs Belal Muhammad: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · June 6, 2026
Result
Gabriel Bonfim defeated Belal Muhammad by Decision - Unanimous in round 5 (05:00:00) at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on June 6, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Gabriel Bonfim as the favourite at 52%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Gabriel Bonfim a 52% chance to beat Belal Muhammad (Belal Muhammad 48%).
The betting market prices Gabriel Bonfim at 49% (-104) and Belal Muhammad at 51% (-118), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Gabriel Bonfim than the bookmakers: 55% for Gabriel Bonfim against the market's 49%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Bonfim's elite wrestling and submission threat could exploit Muhammad's grappling weaknesses, especially given Bonfim's recent four-fight win streak and high finish rates.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 55%, KO/TKO 24%, submission 21%. The most likely way this 5-round welterweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 55%, over 1.5 rounds 83%, over 2.5 rounds 70%.
Key factors
- Bonfim's elite wrestling
- Muhammad's grappling weakness
- Bonfim's recent win streak
Tale of the tape
| Gabriel Bonfim | Belal Muhammad | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1 | 15-6 |
| Age | 29 | 38 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 8 | 21 |
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