Jose Ochoa vs Clayton Carpenter: Result and Prediction
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · May 9, 2026
Result
Jose Ochoa defeated Clayton Carpenter by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland on May 9, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Jose Ochoa as the favourite at 51%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Jose Ochoa a 51% chance to beat Clayton Carpenter (Clayton Carpenter 49%).
The betting market prices Jose Ochoa at 62% (-186) and Clayton Carpenter at 38% (+148), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Clayton Carpenter than the bookmakers: 42% for Jose Ochoa against the market's 62%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Ochoa's knockout power clashes with Carpenter's grappling prowess, making this matchup a battle of striking versus submission in a must-win scenario for both fighters.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 43%, submission 31%, KO/TKO 26%. The most likely way this 3-round flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 43%, over 1.5 rounds 80%, over 2.5 rounds 70%.
Key factors
- Ochoa's striking power
- Carpenter's grappling edge
- Submission threat from Carpenter
Tale of the tape
| Jose Ochoa | Clayton Carpenter | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Age | 26 | 30 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'5" (165 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 5 |
The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.