Thomas Petersen vs Guilherme Pat: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · April 4, 2026
Result
Thomas Petersen defeated Guilherme Pat by Decision - Majority in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan on April 4, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Thomas Petersen at only 46%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Guilherme Pat a 54% chance to beat Thomas Petersen (Thomas Petersen 46%).
The betting market prices Thomas Petersen at 51% (-118) and Guilherme Pat at 49% (-105), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Guilherme Pat than the bookmakers: 35% for Thomas Petersen against the market's 51%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Petersen's struggles with elite strikers clash with Pat's knockout power and defensive prowess, making a finish likely in favor of Pat.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 54%, decision 44%, submission 2%. The most likely way this 3-round heavyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 44%.
Key factors
- Power edge for Pat
- Elite defense advantage
- Recent form favors Pat
Tale of the tape
| Thomas Petersen | Guilherme Pat | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Age | 32 | 32 |
| Height | 6'1" (185 cm) | 6'5" (196 cm) |
| UFC fights | 7 | 3 |
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