Julia Polastri vs Talita Alencar: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · April 25, 2026
Result
Talita Alencar defeated Julia Polastri by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal on April 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Talita Alencar at only 46%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Julia Polastri a 54% chance to beat Talita Alencar (Talita Alencar 46%).
The betting market prices Julia Polastri at 69% (-268) and Talita Alencar at 31% (+204), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Talita Alencar than the bookmakers: 41% for Julia Polastri against the market's 69%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Polastri's elite volume faces Alencar's grappling strength, but recent momentum and ground control may lead Alencar to a decisive victory via submission or decision.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 57%, KO/TKO 24%, submission 19%. The most likely way this 3-round women's strawweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 57%, over 1.5 rounds 88%, over 2.5 rounds 78%.
Key factors
- Grappling edge for Alencar
- Polastri's striking volume
- Recent momentum favors Alencar
Tale of the tape
| Julia Polastri | Talita Alencar | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3 | 4-1 |
| Age | 29 | 36 |
| Height | 5'2" (157 cm) | 5'0" (152 cm) |
| UFC fights | 6 | 5 |
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