Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis: Result and Prediction
UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 · July 11, 2026
Result
Paddy Pimblett defeated Benoit Saint Denis by Submission in round 1 (0:52) at UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 on July 11, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Paddy Pimblett at only 43%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Benoit Saint Denis a 57% chance to beat Paddy Pimblett (Paddy Pimblett 43%).
The betting market prices Paddy Pimblett at 44% (+119) and Benoit Saint Denis at 56% (-145), with the bookmaker margin removed.
With Benoit Saint Denis riding a momentum-filled winning streak and elite grappling to neutralize Paddy Pimblett's striking, this clash shapes up as a battle of contrasting trajectories.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 38%, KO/TKO 34%, submission 28%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 38%, over 1.5 rounds 71%, over 2.5 rounds 55%.
Key factors
- Denis grappling control over Pimblett
- Denis striking power advantage
- Denis recent form momentum
Tale of the tape
| Paddy Pimblett | Benoit Saint Denis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-1 | 9-4 |
| Age | 32 | 31 |
| Height | 5'10" (178 cm) | – |
| UFC fights | 9 | 13 |
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