Luana Santos vs Karol Rosa: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · June 20, 2026
Result
Luana Santos defeated Karol Rosa by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (05:00:00) at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi on June 20, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Luana Santos as the favourite at 58%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Luana Santos a 58% chance to beat Karol Rosa (Karol Rosa 42%).
The betting market prices Luana Santos at 49% (-105) and Karol Rosa at 51% (-118), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Luana Santos than the bookmakers: 67% for Luana Santos against the market's 49%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Santos riding a wave of momentum and superior takedown skills against Rosa's striking volume and UFC experience, this matchup could tip in either direction depending on who controls the fight's pace.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 62%, KO/TKO 20%, submission 18%. The most likely way this 3-round women's bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 62%, over 1.5 rounds 89%, over 2.5 rounds 80%.
Key factors
- Rosa striking volume advantage
- Santos takedown effectiveness
- Rosa experience edge
Tale of the tape
| Luana Santos | Karol Rosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-1 | 8-5 |
| Age | 26 | 32 |
| Height | 5'6" (168 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 7 | 13 |
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