Michael Chandler vs Mauricio Ruffy: Result and Prediction
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · June 14, 2026
Result
Mauricio Ruffy defeated Michael Chandler by KO/TKO in round 1 (04:29:00) at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje on June 14, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Mauricio Ruffy as the favourite at 69%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Mauricio Ruffy a 69% chance to beat Michael Chandler (Michael Chandler 31%).
The betting market prices Michael Chandler at 18% (+442) and Mauricio Ruffy at 82% (-660), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Michael Chandler than the bookmakers: 36% for Michael Chandler against the market's 18%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Ruffy's defensive prowess and recent momentum may exploit Chandler's struggles, while Chandler's KO threat looms large in this clash of styles.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 46%, decision 39%, submission 15%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 39%, over 1.5 rounds 72%, over 2.5 rounds 57%.
Key factors
- Ruffy's defensive edge
- Chandler's cardio advantage
- Recent form disparity
Tale of the tape
| Michael Chandler | Mauricio Ruffy | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-6 | 5-2 |
| Age | 40 | 33 |
| Height | 5'8" (173 cm) | 5'11" (180 cm) |
| UFC fights | 8 | 7 |
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