Nicolle Caliari vs Shauna Bannon: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Result
Nicolle Caliari defeated Shauna Bannon by Submission in round 3 (3:08) at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa on May 16, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Nicolle Caliari as the favourite at 61%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Nicolle Caliari a 61% chance to beat Shauna Bannon (Shauna Bannon 39%).
The betting market prices Nicolle Caliari at 70% (-286) and Shauna Bannon at 30% (+216), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Shauna Bannon than the bookmakers: 45% for Nicolle Caliari against the market's 70%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Caliari's striking power clashes with Bannon's cardio, while Bannon's submission skills could exploit Caliari's grappling vulnerabilities in a thrilling contest.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 36%, decision 33%, submission 31%. The most likely way this 3-round women's strawweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 33%.
Key factors
- Caliari's striking power
- Bannon's cardio advantage
- Submission threat from Bannon
Tale of the tape
| Nicolle Caliari | Shauna Bannon | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Age | 30 | 33 |
| Height | 5'3" (160 cm) | 5'5" (165 cm) |
| UFC fights | 3 | 5 |
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