Carlos Prates vs Jack Della Maddalena: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 2, 2026
Result
Carlos Prates defeated Jack Della Maddalena by KO/TKO in round 3 (3:17) at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates on May 2, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Carlos Prates at only 45%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Jack Della Maddalena a 55% chance to beat Carlos Prates (Carlos Prates 45%).
The betting market prices Carlos Prates at 53% (-123) and Jack Della Maddalena at 47% (+101), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Jack Della Maddalena than the bookmakers: 35% for Carlos Prates against the market's 53%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Prates' elite defense faces Della Maddalena's striking power, with both fighters' recent trajectories shaping a compelling matchup.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 50%, decision 38%, submission 12%. The most likely way this 5-round welterweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 38%, over 1.5 rounds 70%, over 2.5 rounds 53%.
Key factors
- Prates' elite defense
- Della Maddalena's striking power
- Prates' recent momentum
Tale of the tape
| Carlos Prates | Jack Della Maddalena | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1 | 8-2 |
| Age | 33 | 30 |
| Height | 6'1" (185 cm) | 5'11" (180 cm) |
| UFC fights | 8 | 10 |
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