Myktybek Orolbai vs Jeremiah Wells: Result and Prediction
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · August 15, 2026
Result
Jeremiah Wells defeated Myktybek Orolbai by Submission in round 3 (1:24) at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry on August 15, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Jeremiah Wells at only 32%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Myktybek Orolbai a 68% chance to beat Jeremiah Wells (Jeremiah Wells 32%).
The betting market prices Myktybek Orolbai at 87% (-1207) and Jeremiah Wells at 13% (+642), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Jeremiah Wells than the bookmakers: 58% for Myktybek Orolbai against the market's 87%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Orolbai’s recent surge and superior takedown control could smother Wells, who’s grappling with a rough patch and may struggle to keep the fight standing.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 48%, KO/TKO 29%, submission 23%. The most likely way this 3-round welterweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 48%, over 1.5 rounds 77%, over 2.5 rounds 64%.
Key factors
- Orolbai's takedown control advantage
- Orolbai's defensive edge in striking
- Orolbai's momentum from recent wins
Tale of the tape
| Myktybek Orolbai | Jeremiah Wells | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 6-2 |
| Age | 29 | 40 |
| Height | 5'10" (178 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 7 | 8 |
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