Bogdan Grad vs Dennis Buzukja: Result and Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · August 1, 2026

Result

Bogdan Grad defeated Dennis Buzukja by Submission in round 2 (4:43) at UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez on August 1, 2026.

The FIGHT//AI model had Bogdan Grad as the favourite at 53%, so the result went with the model.

Model prediction

The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Bogdan Grad a 53% chance to beat Dennis Buzukja (Dennis Buzukja 47%).

The betting market prices Bogdan Grad at 64% (-211) and Dennis Buzukja at 36% (+165), with the bookmaker margin removed.

Our model is more positive on Dennis Buzukja than the bookmakers: 45% for Bogdan Grad against the market's 64%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.

With Grad's grappling dominance likely to ground Buzukja's striking, this clash could turn into a battle of attrition where a single moment of chaos might sway the judges.

How the model expected it to end

Method of victory, either fighter: decision 47%, KO/TKO 38%, submission 16%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.

Fight length: goes the distance 47%, over 1.5 rounds 77%, over 2.5 rounds 64%.

Key factors

• Grad grappling control advantage
• Grad KO threat looms large
• Buzukja slight experience edge

Tale of the tape

The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.