Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Shem Rock: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · March 21, 2026
Result
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady defeated Shem Rock by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy on March 21, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady as the favourite at 53%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady a 53% chance to beat Shem Rock (Shem Rock 47%).
The betting market prices Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady at 47% (+102) and Shem Rock at 53% (-125), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady than the bookmakers: 65% for Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady against the market's 47%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Al-Selwady's striking power and cardio may overwhelm Rock, who relies on grappling but faces a significant KO threat in this matchup.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 40%, decision 37%, submission 22%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 37%.
Key factors
- Al-Selwady's striking power
- Rock's grappling control
- Al-Selwady's cardio advantage
Tale of the tape
| Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | Shem Rock | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Age | 32 | 33 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | – |
| UFC fights | 2 | 2 |
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