Steve Erceg vs Tim Elliott: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 2, 2026
Result
Steve Erceg defeated Tim Elliott by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates on May 2, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Steve Erceg as the favourite at 60%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Steve Erceg a 60% chance to beat Tim Elliott (Tim Elliott 40%).
The betting market prices Steve Erceg at 72% (-311) and Tim Elliott at 28% (+234), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Tim Elliott than the bookmakers: 53% for Steve Erceg against the market's 72%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Erceg's striking power and recent form could exploit Elliott's grappling, potentially leading to a decisive finish or a tactical decision victory.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 60%, submission 20%, KO/TKO 20%. The most likely way this 3-round flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 60%, over 1.5 rounds 88%, over 2.5 rounds 78%.
Key factors
- Erceg's striking power
- Elliott's grappling control
- Erceg's recent momentum
Tale of the tape
| Steve Erceg | Tim Elliott | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4 | 11-12 |
| Age | 31 | 40 |
| Height | 5'8" (173 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 9 | 23 |
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