Valesca Machado vs Melissa Amaya: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · September 26, 2026
Result
Valesca Machado defeated Melissa Amaya at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos on September 26, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Valesca Machado as the favourite at 58%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Valesca Machado a 58% chance to beat Melissa Amaya (Melissa Amaya 42%).
The betting market prices Valesca Machado at 66% (-229) and Melissa Amaya at 34% (+176), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Melissa Amaya than the bookmakers: 45% for Valesca Machado against the market's 66%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Amaya's striking power and elite defense could exploit Machado's recent struggles, making a finish likely as she seeks to capitalize on her opponent's vulnerabilities.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 43%, KO/TKO 37%, submission 19%. The most likely way this 3-round women's strawweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 43%.
Key factors
- Amaya's striking power
- Machado's recent losses
- Amaya's elite defense
Tale of the tape
| Valesca Machado | Melissa Amaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Age | 30 | 31 |
| Height | 5'4" (163 cm) | 5'4" (163 cm) |
| UFC fights | 0 | 0 |
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