Mateusz Rebecki vs Grant Dawson: Result and Prediction
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · May 9, 2026
Result
Grant Dawson defeated Mateusz Rebecki by Submission in round 3 (4:42) at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland on May 9, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Grant Dawson as the favourite at 58%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Grant Dawson a 58% chance to beat Mateusz Rebecki (Mateusz Rebecki 42%).
The betting market prices Mateusz Rebecki at 42% (+125) and Grant Dawson at 58% (-157), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Dawson’s grappling prowess and experience clash with Rebecki’s striking volume, making it a battle of cage IQ versus output—and you can bet the fight will hinge on whose game plan prevails.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 52%, KO/TKO 26%, submission 23%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 52%, over 1.5 rounds 85%, over 2.5 rounds 73%.
Key factors
- Dawson grappling control advantage
- Rebecki striking volume edge
- Dawson cardio strength late
Tale of the tape
| Mateusz Rebecki | Grant Dawson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4 | 12-2 |
| Age | 34 | 33 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 9 | 14 |
The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.