Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · March 28, 2026
Result
Casey O'Neill defeated Gabriella Fernandes by KO/TKO in round 1 (3:11) at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Casey O'Neill as the favourite at 55%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Casey O'Neill a 55% chance to beat Gabriella Fernandes (Gabriella Fernandes 45%).
O'Neill's striking power and cardio might overwhelm Fernandes, but the latter's recent form could lead to an upset in this high-stakes clash.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 53%, KO/TKO 25%, submission 21%. The most likely way this 3-round women's flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 53%, over 1.5 rounds 86%, over 2.5 rounds 75%.
Key factors
- O'Neill's striking power
- Fernandes' recent momentum
- O'Neill's cardio advantage
Tale of the tape
| Casey O'Neill | Gabriella Fernandes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-2 | 3-3 |
| Age | 29 | 33 |
| Height | 5'6" (168 cm) | 5'6" (168 cm) |
| UFC fights | 9 | 6 |
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