Melquizael Costa vs Arnold Allen: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Result
Arnold Allen defeated Melquizael Costa by Decision - Unanimous in round 5 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa on May 16, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Arnold Allen as the favourite at 54%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Arnold Allen a 54% chance to beat Melquizael Costa (Melquizael Costa 46%).
The betting market prices Melquizael Costa at 46% (+106) and Arnold Allen at 54% (-130), with the bookmaker margin removed.
In a clash of styles, Costa's relentless pace meets Allen's striking precision, making for a thrilling contest with potential for finishes on both sides.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 53%, KO/TKO 27%, submission 19%. The most likely way this 5-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 53%, over 1.5 rounds 84%, over 2.5 rounds 71%.
Key factors
- Costa's cardio advantage
- Allen's striking precision
- Recent momentum for Costa
Tale of the tape
| Melquizael Costa | Arnold Allen | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 | 12-3 |
| Age | 30 | 33 |
| Height | 5'10" (178 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 10 | 15 |
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