Mitch Raposo vs Allan Nascimento: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · June 20, 2026
Result
Mitch Raposo defeated Allan Nascimento by Decision - Split in round 3 (05:00:00) at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi on June 20, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Mitch Raposo at only 40%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Allan Nascimento a 60% chance to beat Mitch Raposo (Mitch Raposo 40%).
The betting market prices Mitch Raposo at 39% (+143) and Allan Nascimento at 61% (-180), with the bookmaker margin removed.
With Nascimento riding a wave of momentum from recent wins and Raposo struggling for consistency, this bout could hinge on whether Raposo’s takedown pressure can disrupt Nascimento's striking rhythm.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 56%, submission 24%, KO/TKO 19%. The most likely way this 3-round flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 56%, over 1.5 rounds 86%, over 2.5 rounds 76%.
Key factors
- Nascimento momentum from recent wins
- Raposo's takedown pressure advantage
- Raposo's defensive metrics edge
Tale of the tape
| Mitch Raposo | Allan Nascimento | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Age | 28 | 35 |
| Height | 5'5" (165 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 6 |
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