Ryan Spann vs Marcus Buchecha: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · April 25, 2026
Result
Ryan Spann defeated Marcus Buchecha by KO/TKO in round 2 (2:10) at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal on April 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Ryan Spann at only 47%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Marcus Buchecha a 53% chance to beat Ryan Spann (Ryan Spann 47%).
The betting market prices Ryan Spann at 44% (+116) and Marcus Buchecha at 56% (-142), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Ryan Spann than the bookmakers: 52% for Ryan Spann against the market's 44%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Spann's grappling and recent momentum may exploit Buchecha's debut jitters, leading to a potential finish via submission or knockout.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 45%, submission 31%, KO/TKO 24%. The most likely way this 3-round heavyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 45%.
Key factors
- Spann's grappling edge
- Buchecha's elite defense
- Streak momentum for Spann
Tale of the tape
| Ryan Spann | Marcus Buchecha | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-7 | 0-2 |
| Age | 35 | 37 |
| Height | 6'5" (196 cm) | – |
| UFC fights | 17 | 2 |
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