Felipe Franco vs Mario Pinto: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · March 21, 2026
Result
Mario Pinto defeated Felipe Franco by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy on March 21, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Mario Pinto as the favourite at 78%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Mario Pinto a 78% chance to beat Felipe Franco (Felipe Franco 22%).
The betting market prices Felipe Franco at 14% (+570) and Mario Pinto at 86% (-988), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Felipe Franco than the bookmakers: 32% for Felipe Franco against the market's 14%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Pinto's finishing ability and striking power may overwhelm Franco's elite defense, leading to a decisive finish in the later rounds.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 60%, decision 26%, submission 14%. The most likely way this 3-round heavyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 26%.
Key factors
- Pinto's KO threat
- Franco's elite defense
- Grappling control favoring Pinto
Tale of the tape
| Felipe Franco | Mario Pinto | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 4-0 |
| Age | 26 | 28 |
| Height | 6'1" (185 cm) | 6'5" (196 cm) |
| UFC fights | 2 | 4 |
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