Sam Patterson vs Santiago Ponzinibbio: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · July 25, 2026
Result
Sam Patterson defeated Santiago Ponzinibbio by KO/TKO in round 2 (3:06) at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov on July 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Sam Patterson as the favourite at 65%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Sam Patterson a 65% chance to beat Santiago Ponzinibbio (Santiago Ponzinibbio 35%).
The betting market prices Sam Patterson at 79% (-515) and Santiago Ponzinibbio at 21% (+355), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Santiago Ponzinibbio than the bookmakers: 54% for Sam Patterson against the market's 79%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Experience Factor collides with striking volume & accuracy — a genuine toss-up where game plan execution decides everything.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 41%, KO/TKO 40%, submission 20%. The most likely way this 3-round welterweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 41%, over 1.5 rounds 74%, over 2.5 rounds 60%.
Key factors
- Santiago Ponzinibbio experience factor advantage
- Santiago Ponzinibbio striking volume & accuracy advantage
- Sam Patterson recent form trajectory advantage
Tale of the tape
| Sam Patterson | Santiago Ponzinibbio | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 12-9 |
| Age | 30 | 40 |
| Height | 6'4" (193 cm) | 6'0" (183 cm) |
| UFC fights | 7 | 21 |
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