Ernesta Kareckaite vs Sofia Montenegro: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · February 28, 2026
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Ernesta Kareckaite a 57% chance to beat Sofia Montenegro (Sofia Montenegro 43%).
Kareckaite's strong striking and defensive metrics may exploit Montenegro's inactivity and lower output, while Montenegro’s unpredictable debut could add an element of surprise in this intriguing matchup.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 58%, KO/TKO 23%, submission 18%. The most likely way this 3-round women's flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 58%, over 1.5 rounds 87%, over 2.5 rounds 76%.
Key factors
- Ernesta Kareckaite defensive metrics advantage
- Ernesta Kareckaite striking power differential advantage
- Ernesta Kareckaite cardio & endurance advantage
Tale of the tape
| Ernesta Kareckaite | Sofia Montenegro | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Age | 28 | 27 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'5" (165 cm) |
| UFC fights | 3 | 1 |
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