Ollie Schmid vs Marwan Rahiki: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 2, 2026
Result
Marwan Rahiki defeated Ollie Schmid by KO/TKO in round 1 (2:47) at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates on May 2, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Marwan Rahiki as the favourite at 77%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Marwan Rahiki a 77% chance to beat Ollie Schmid (Ollie Schmid 23%).
The betting market prices Ollie Schmid at 15% (+530) and Marwan Rahiki at 85% (-864), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Ollie Schmid than the bookmakers: 32% for Ollie Schmid against the market's 15%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Rahiki's knockout power may overwhelm Schmid's defensive tactics, but Schmid's cardio could extend the fight and test Rahiki's endurance.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 75%, decision 21%, submission 4%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 21%.
Key factors
- Rahiki's KO power
- Schmid's defensive prowess
- Endurance advantage for Schmid
Tale of the tape
| Ollie Schmid | Marwan Rahiki | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Age | 26 | 24 |
| Height | – | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 3 |
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