Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas: Result and Prediction
UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 · July 11, 2026
Result
Damian Pinas defeated Cesar Almeida by KO/TKO in round 1 (4:44) at UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 on July 11, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Damian Pinas as the favourite at 62%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Damian Pinas a 62% chance to beat Cesar Almeida (Cesar Almeida 38%).
The betting market prices Cesar Almeida at 31% (+203) and Damian Pinas at 69% (-269), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Cesar Almeida than the bookmakers: 46% for Cesar Almeida against the market's 31%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Pinas' striking power and elite defense may expose Almeida's vulnerabilities, especially given Almeida's recent loss and Pinas' perfect finish rate.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 68%, decision 23%, submission 9%. The most likely way this 3-round middleweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 23%.
Key factors
- Pinas' elite striking
- Almeida's defensive skills
- Pinas' cardio advantage
Tale of the tape
| Cesar Almeida | Damian Pinas | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3 | 2-0 |
| Age | 38 | 24 |
| Height | 6'1" (185 cm) | 6'0" (183 cm) |
| UFC fights | 6 | 2 |
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