Tallison Teixeira vs Sergei Pavlovich: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · May 30, 2026
Result
Sergei Pavlovich defeated Tallison Teixeira by KO/TKO in round 1 (00:39:00) at UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo on May 30, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Sergei Pavlovich as the favourite at 67%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Sergei Pavlovich a 67% chance to beat Tallison Teixeira (Tallison Teixeira 33%).
The betting market prices Tallison Teixeira at 18% (+426) and Sergei Pavlovich at 82% (-660), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Tallison Teixeira than the bookmakers: 41% for Tallison Teixeira against the market's 18%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Pavlovich's knockout power and defensive prowess clash with Teixeira's solid striking defense, setting the stage for a potentially explosive finish.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 45%, decision 44%, submission 12%. The most likely way this 3-round heavyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 44%, over 1.5 rounds 73%, over 2.5 rounds 60%.
Key factors
- Pavlovich's knockout power
- Teixeira's defensive skills
- Recent winning streaks
Tale of the tape
| Tallison Teixeira | Sergei Pavlovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 9-3 |
| Age | 26 | 34 |
| Height | 6'8" (203 cm) | 6'3" (191 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 12 |
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