Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa: Result and Prediction
UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 · July 11, 2026
Result
Alessandro Costa defeated Cody Durden by Submission in round 2 (2:19) at UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 on July 11, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Alessandro Costa as the favourite at 61%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Alessandro Costa a 61% chance to beat Cody Durden (Cody Durden 39%).
The betting market prices Cody Durden at 33% (+190) and Alessandro Costa at 67% (-245), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Cody Durden than the bookmakers: 41% for Cody Durden against the market's 33%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Durden's grappling prowess faces off against Costa's upward momentum and striking volume, setting the stage for an intriguing clash where experience meets fresh confidence.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 48%, KO/TKO 35%, submission 17%. The most likely way this 3-round flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 48%, over 1.5 rounds 78%, over 2.5 rounds 65%.
Key factors
- Durden's grappling control advantage
- Costa's striking volume edge
- Durden's experience in critical moments
Tale of the tape
| Cody Durden | Alessandro Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-9 | 5-3 |
| Age | 36 | 31 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'5" (165 cm) |
| UFC fights | 16 | 8 |
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