Darrius Flowers vs Lando Vannata: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · April 4, 2026
Result
Darrius Flowers defeated Lando Vannata by KO/TKO in round 2 (0:52) at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan on April 4, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Darrius Flowers at only 38%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Lando Vannata a 62% chance to beat Darrius Flowers (Darrius Flowers 38%).
The betting market prices Darrius Flowers at 34% (+182) and Lando Vannata at 66% (-236), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Darrius Flowers than the bookmakers: 40% for Darrius Flowers against the market's 34%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Vannata's striking power and cardio could exploit Flowers' grappling vulnerabilities, potentially leading to a finish or a dominant decision victory.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 53%, KO/TKO 24%, submission 23%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 53%, over 1.5 rounds 80%, over 2.5 rounds 68%.
Key factors
- Vannata's striking power
- Flowers' grappling vulnerability
- Vannata's cardio advantage
Tale of the tape
| Darrius Flowers | Lando Vannata | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 4-8 |
| Age | 32 | 34 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 12 |
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