Francis Marshall vs Erik Silva: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · February 28, 2026
Result
Francis Marshall defeated Erik Silva by Submission in round 1 (2:29) at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh on February 28, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Francis Marshall as the favourite at 61%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Francis Marshall a 61% chance to beat Erik Silva (Erik Silva 39%).
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 51%, KO/TKO 24%, submission 24%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 51%, over 1.5 rounds 78%, over 2.5 rounds 67%.
Key factors
- Francis Marshall matchup patterns advantage
- Francis Marshall overall rating advantage
- Francis Marshall grappling control advantage
Tale of the tape
| Francis Marshall | Erik Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| Age | 28 | 39 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'10" (178 cm) |
| UFC fights | 7 | 3 |
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