Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · October 10, 2026
Result
Andre Fili defeated Kai Kamaka III at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan on October 10, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Andre Fili as the favourite at 55%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Andre Fili a 55% chance to beat Kai Kamaka III (Kai Kamaka III 45%).
The betting market prices Andre Fili at 57% (-152) and Kai Kamaka III at 43% (+123), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Kai Kamaka III than the bookmakers: 51% for Andre Fili against the market's 57%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Thin tape on III — model projects Fili at 51% but treat this as a sketch, not a blueprint.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 58%, KO/TKO 35%, submission 7%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 58%.
Key factors
- Fili grappling control advantage
- Kamaka III striking volume edge
- Fili defensive metrics superiority
Tale of the tape
| Andre Fili | Kai Kamaka III | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-13 | 1-1 |
| Age | 36 | 31 |
| Height | 5'10" (178 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 26 | 2 |
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