Antonio Trocoli vs Mantas Kondratavicius: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · March 21, 2026
Result
Mantas Kondratavicius defeated Antonio Trocoli by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy on March 21, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Mantas Kondratavicius as the favourite at 80%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Mantas Kondratavicius a 80% chance to beat Antonio Trocoli (Antonio Trocoli 20%).
The betting market prices Antonio Trocoli at 15% (+550) and Mantas Kondratavicius at 85% (-920), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Antonio Trocoli than the bookmakers: 25% for Antonio Trocoli against the market's 15%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Kondratavicius's elite striking and cardio will exploit Trocoli's defensive gaps, likely leading to a knockout finish amid Trocoli's ongoing losing streak.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 60%, decision 29%, submission 11%. The most likely way this 3-round middleweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 29%.
Key factors
- Kondratavicius's striking power
- Trocoli's defensive limitations
- Kondratavicius's cardio advantage
Tale of the tape
| Antonio Trocoli | Mantas Kondratavicius | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 1-0 |
| Age | 36 | 27 |
| Height | 6'5" (196 cm) | 6'2" (188 cm) |
| UFC fights | 4 | 1 |
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