Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze: Result and Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · August 22, 2026

Result

Reinier de Ridder defeated Roman Dolidze by KO/TKO in round 1 (4:01) at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues on August 22, 2026.

The FIGHT//AI model had Reinier de Ridder as the favourite at 62%, so the result went with the model.

Model prediction

The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Reinier de Ridder a 62% chance to beat Roman Dolidze (Roman Dolidze 38%).

The betting market prices Reinier de Ridder at 76% (-402) and Roman Dolidze at 24% (+289), with the bookmaker margin removed.

Our model is more positive on Roman Dolidze than the bookmakers: 54% for Reinier de Ridder against the market's 76%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.

Dolidze's elite grappling and experience could exploit Ridder’s defensive vulnerabilities, while Ridder will need to rely on his striking to avoid getting worn down as the fight progresses.

How the model expected it to end

Method of victory, either fighter: decision 46%, KO/TKO 34%, submission 20%. The most likely way this 3-round light heavyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.

Fight length: goes the distance 46%, over 1.5 rounds 83%, over 2.5 rounds 69%.

Key factors

• Dolidze grappling advantage on the mat
• Dolidze cardio edge in later rounds
• Ridder defensive metrics slightly better

Tale of the tape

The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.