Niko Price vs Michael Chiesa: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · March 28, 2026
Result
Michael Chiesa defeated Niko Price by Submission in round 1 (1:03) at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Michael Chiesa as the favourite at 71%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Michael Chiesa a 71% chance to beat Niko Price (Niko Price 29%).
The betting market prices Niko Price at 15% (+517) and Michael Chiesa at 85% (-811), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Niko Price than the bookmakers: 39% for Niko Price against the market's 15%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Chiesa riding a winning streak and wielding elite grappling to stifle Price's wild striking, this bout feels like a clash of momentum versus raw knockout power.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 43%, submission 31%, KO/TKO 26%. The most likely way this 3-round welterweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 43%, over 1.5 rounds 75%, over 2.5 rounds 61%.
Key factors
- Chiesa grappling control advantage
- Chiesa defensive metrics edge
- Price striking volume potential
Tale of the tape
| Niko Price | Michael Chiesa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-11 | 15-7 |
| Age | 37 | 39 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 6'1" (185 cm) |
| UFC fights | 19 | 22 |
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