Elisha Ellison vs Gable Steveson: Result and Prediction
UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 · July 11, 2026
Result
Gable Steveson defeated Elisha Ellison by KO/TKO in round 1 (2:31) at UFC 329: Mcgregor vs. Holloway 2 on July 11, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Gable Steveson as the favourite at 78%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Gable Steveson a 78% chance to beat Elisha Ellison (Elisha Ellison 22%).
The betting market prices Elisha Ellison at 9% (+919) and Gable Steveson at 91% (-2187), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Elisha Ellison than the bookmakers: 35% for Elisha Ellison against the market's 9%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Steveson's elite grappling and 100% KO rate may overwhelm Ellison's striking prowess and pressure tactics.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 71%, decision 26%, submission 3%. The most likely way this 3-round heavyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 26%.
Key factors
- Steveson’s elite grappling
- Ellison's striking power
- Steveson’s KO threat
Tale of the tape
| Elisha Ellison | Gable Steveson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Age | 30 | 26 |
| Height | 5'11" (180 cm) | 6'1" (185 cm) |
| UFC fights | 2 | 2 |
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