Artur Minev vs Tommy Gantt: Result and Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026

Result

Tommy Gantt defeated Artur Minev by KO/TKO in round 2 (2:51) at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa on May 16, 2026.

The FIGHT//AI model had Tommy Gantt as the favourite at 59%, so the result went with the model.

Model prediction

The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Tommy Gantt a 59% chance to beat Artur Minev (Artur Minev 41%).

The betting market prices Artur Minev at 37% (+175) and Tommy Gantt at 63% (-170), with the bookmaker margin removed.

Our model is more positive on Artur Minev than the bookmakers: 45% for Artur Minev against the market's 37%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.

With both fighters boasting impressive knockout and submission rates, Minev’s heavy hands clash with Gantt’s grappling prowess, making this matchup a thrilling battle of striking versus ground game.

How the model expected it to end

Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 44%, submission 38%, decision 17%. The most likely way this 3-round lightweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.

Fight length: goes the distance 17%.

Tale of the tape

The full interactive analysis – Fight Map, simulations, signals and AI picks – loads with JavaScript.