Sumudaerji vs Alex Perez: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · May 30, 2026
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Alex Perez a 51% chance to beat Sumudaerji (Sumudaerji 49%).
The betting market prices Sumudaerji at 45% (+113) and Alex Perez at 55% (-138), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Sumudaerji than the bookmakers: 53% for Sumudaerji against the market's 45%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Sumudaerji's elite defense and cardio could stifle Perez's knockout power, while both fighters seek to capitalize on their recent successes.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 54%, KO/TKO 29%, submission 17%. The most likely way this 3-round flyweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 54%, over 1.5 rounds 79%, over 2.5 rounds 68%.
Key factors
- Sumudaerji's elite defense
- Perez's knockout power
- Recent momentum for Sumudaerji
Tale of the tape
| Sumudaerji | Alex Perez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-4 | 8-7 |
| Age | 31 | 34 |
| Height | – | 5'6" (168 cm) |
| UFC fights | 11 | 15 |
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