Saygid Izagakhmaev vs Abubakar Vagaev: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · July 25, 2026
Result
Abubakar Vagaev defeated Saygid Izagakhmaev by Decision in round 3 at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov on July 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Abubakar Vagaev as the favourite at 63%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Abubakar Vagaev a 63% chance to beat Saygid Izagakhmaev (Saygid Izagakhmaev 37%).
The betting market prices Saygid Izagakhmaev at 32% (+198) and Abubakar Vagaev at 68% (-255), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Saygid Izagakhmaev than the bookmakers: 45% for Saygid Izagakhmaev against the market's 32%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Vagaev's striking power and defensive acumen may outlast Izagakhmaev's grappling threat, leading to a potential KO finish.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 54%, KO/TKO 27%, submission 19%. The most likely way this 3-round welterweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 54%.
Key factors
- Vagaev's KO potential
- Izagakhmaev's grappling
- Defensive edge for Vagaev
Tale of the tape
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | Abubakar Vagaev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Age | 32 | 33 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 6'0" (183 cm) |
| UFC fights | 2 | 1 |
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