Muhammad Naimov vs Losene Keita: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · September 5, 2026
Result
Losene Keita defeated Muhammad Naimov by KO/TKO in round 1 (2:54) at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse on September 5, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Losene Keita as the favourite at 65%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Losene Keita a 65% chance to beat Muhammad Naimov (Muhammad Naimov 35%).
The betting market prices Muhammad Naimov at 25% (+276) and Losene Keita at 75% (-387), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Muhammad Naimov than the bookmakers: 50% for Muhammad Naimov against the market's 25%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Naimov's grappling may neutralize Keita's striking, but with a 62% KO rate, Keita's power poses a constant threat throughout the bout.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 52%, decision 43%, submission 6%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 43%.
Key factors
- Keita's elite striking
- Naimov's grappling control
- Cardio advantage for Keita
Tale of the tape
| Muhammad Naimov | Losene Keita | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 1-1 |
| Age | 32 | 29 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| UFC fights | 8 | 2 |
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