Christian Rodriguez vs Hyder Amil: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · June 20, 2026
Result
Christian Rodriguez defeated Hyder Amil by Submission in round 1 (03:43:00) at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi on June 20, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Christian Rodriguez as the favourite at 56%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Christian Rodriguez a 56% chance to beat Hyder Amil (Hyder Amil 44%).
The betting market prices Christian Rodriguez at 63% (-201) and Hyder Amil at 37% (+159), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Hyder Amil than the bookmakers: 51% for Christian Rodriguez against the market's 63%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
This showdown pits Amil's striking volume against Rodriguez's finishing power, making for a thrilling clash where experience could tip the scales in a razor-thin matchup.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 54%, KO/TKO 29%, submission 17%. The most likely way this 3-round featherweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 54%, over 1.5 rounds 82%, over 2.5 rounds 71%.
Key factors
- Amil striking volume advantage
- Rodriguez experience edge
- Rodriguez KO threat potential
Tale of the tape
| Christian Rodriguez | Hyder Amil | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| Age | 29 | 36 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 10 | 6 |
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