Adrian Luna Martinetti vs Davey Grant: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · April 25, 2026
Result
Davey Grant defeated Adrian Luna Martinetti by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal on April 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Davey Grant as the favourite at 51%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Davey Grant a 51% chance to beat Adrian Luna Martinetti (Adrian Luna Martinetti 49%).
The betting market prices Adrian Luna Martinetti at 46% (+105) and Davey Grant at 54% (-128), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Adrian Luna Martinetti than the bookmakers: 55% for Adrian Luna Martinetti against the market's 46%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Martinetti's elite striking and defensive skills clash with Grant's pressure and cardio, setting the stage for a potential finish amidst Grant's recent struggles.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 42%, KO/TKO 40%, submission 18%. The most likely way this 3-round bantamweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 42%.
Key factors
- Martinetti's elite striking
- Grant's cardio advantage
- Defensive edge for Martinetti
Tale of the tape
| Adrian Luna Martinetti | Davey Grant | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 9-7 |
| Age | 31 | 41 |
| Height | 5'8" (173 cm) | 5'8" (173 cm) |
| UFC fights | 1 | 16 |
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