Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · August 29, 2026
Result
Denise Gomes defeated Yan Xiaonan by KO/TKO in round 1 (4:49) at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song on August 29, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Denise Gomes at only 49%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Yan Xiaonan a 51% chance to beat Denise Gomes (Denise Gomes 49%).
The betting market prices Denise Gomes at 42% (+125) and Yan Xiaonan at 58% (-154), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Denise Gomes than the bookmakers: 56% for Denise Gomes against the market's 42%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
With Gomes riding a winning streak and showcasing grappling dominance, she faces a tough test against Xiaonan's elite striking defense that could turn the tide in this thrilling matchup.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 59%, KO/TKO 29%, submission 11%. The most likely way this 3-round women's strawweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 59%, over 1.5 rounds 88%, over 2.5 rounds 77%.
Key factors
- Gomes grappling advantage on the mat
- Xiaonan defensive edge against strikes
- Gomes momentum from winning streak
Tale of the tape
| Denise Gomes | Yan Xiaonan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-2 | 9-5 |
| Age | 27 | 37 |
| Height | 5'3" (160 cm) | 5'5" (165 cm) |
| UFC fights | 9 | 14 |
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