Melissa Mullins vs Bia Mesquita: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · June 20, 2026
Result
Bia Mesquita defeated Melissa Mullins by Submission in round 1 (03:16:00) at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi on June 20, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Bia Mesquita as the favourite at 78%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Bia Mesquita a 78% chance to beat Melissa Mullins (Melissa Mullins 22%).
The betting market prices Melissa Mullins at 18% (+436) and Bia Mesquita at 82% (-556), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Melissa Mullins than the bookmakers: 25% for Melissa Mullins against the market's 18%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
Mullins faces a daunting challenge against Mesquita, whose elite grappling and submission skills can exploit Mullins' weaknesses, despite her striking power.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: submission 65%, KO/TKO 24%, decision 11%. The most likely way this 3-round women's bantamweight fight ends is by submission.
Fight length: goes the distance 11%.
Key factors
- Mesquita's elite grappling
- Mullins' striking power
- Submission threat from Mesquita
Tale of the tape
| Melissa Mullins | Bia Mesquita | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Age | 35 | 36 |
| Height | 5'7" (170 cm) | – |
| UFC fights | 4 | 3 |
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