Guilherme Pat vs Steven Asplund: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · August 8, 2026
Result
Steven Asplund defeated Guilherme Pat by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld on August 8, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Steven Asplund as the favourite at 65%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Steven Asplund a 65% chance to beat Guilherme Pat (Guilherme Pat 35%).
The betting market prices Guilherme Pat at 29% (+226) and Steven Asplund at 71% (-307), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Guilherme Pat than the bookmakers: 45% for Guilherme Pat against the market's 29%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of elite strikers, Asplund's higher KO threat could exploit any defensive lapses from Pat, setting the stage for a potential finish.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 69%, decision 31%, submission 0%. The most likely way this 3-round heavyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 31%.
Key factors
- Asplund's KO threat
- Pat's defensive skills
- Elite cardio for both
Tale of the tape
| Guilherme Pat | Steven Asplund | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Age | 32 | 28 |
| Height | 6'5" (196 cm) | 6'5" (196 cm) |
| UFC fights | 3 | 3 |
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