Ernesta Kareckaite vs Regina Tarin: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · February 28, 2026
Result
Regina Tarin defeated Ernesta Kareckaite by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh on February 28, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Regina Tarin at only 25%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Ernesta Kareckaite a 75% chance to beat Regina Tarin (Regina Tarin 25%).
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 59%, KO/TKO 24%, submission 17%. The most likely way this 3-round catch weight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 59%, over 1.5 rounds 87%, over 2.5 rounds 77%.
Key factors
- Kareckaite striking advantage
- Kareckaite grappling control
- Kareckaite cardio edge late
Tale of the tape
| Ernesta Kareckaite | Regina Tarin | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Age | 28 | 21 |
| Height | 5'9" (175 cm) | 5'7" (170 cm) |
| UFC fights | 3 | 2 |
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